01The mechanism
Recycled pallets do not come from a factory. They come from businesses that have finished with them. That means supply is a function of what other people are doing, not of what any yard decides to produce.
In the fourth quarter, retail and consumer goods build inventory hard. Product moves into distribution centres and sits there. The pallets under that product are, by definition, not available to anyone. At the same time, everybody who needs pallets needs more of them, because they are building the same inventory.
Demand up, supply held. That is the whole explanation, and it repeats annually with remarkable consistency.
02What it looks like in numbers
| Period | Grade B 48x40, typical | Availability | Lead time |
|---|---|---|---|
| July–August | $10.75 | Good | 24–48 h |
| September | $11.20 | Good | 24–48 h |
| October | $12.10 | Tightening | 48–72 h |
| November | $12.90 | Tight | 3–5 days |
| Early December | $12.60 | Tight | 3–5 days |
| January | $11.00 | Loosening | 24–48 h |
| February–March | $10.60 | Good | 24 h |
An 8 to 18% swing does not sound dramatic until you multiply it by a year's volume. On 30,000 pallets, a two dollar difference is sixty thousand dollars, and it is available to anyone who plans.
03Three ways to buy around it
- Place a standing order in Q3. Fixed price, fixed release schedule, and we accumulate against it. This is the single most effective move and it is worth 8–15%.
- Buy ahead if you have space. Pallets do not spoil. If you have covered storage, buying October's requirement in August is free money, minus the space.
- Sell your empties in Q4. The same scarcity that raises what you pay raises what your surplus is worth. If you are generating pallets during your own build-up, that is the best time of year to be selling them.
04Regional variation is larger than people expect
The national pattern holds everywhere, but its amplitude differs a lot. Deep surplus markets — Dallas–Fort Worth, Atlanta, Los Angeles — barely notice it, because there is enough slack in the system to absorb the swing.
Deficit markets feel it hard. In Denver, which is five hundred miles from the nearest comparable metro, a Q4 tightening is a genuine availability problem and not just a price one. If you buy in an isolated market, the planning advice above stops being optional.
